If you’ve been wondering why airlines still fly aircraft that look like they belong in a museum rather than a modern fleet, blame the supply chain gods. Aircraft availability is tighter than an economy seat on a Ryanair flight to Ibiza, and the problem isn’t getting better anytime soon.
Despite global passenger traffic soaring past 2019 levels last year, the number of new aircraft deliveries is still stubbornly lagging, according to the IATA’s website, sitting a whopping 30% below pre-pandemic peaks. Why? Because aircraft manufacturers and their suppliers are still scrambling to shake off the aftershocks of a supply chain meltdown that makes Heathrow baggage handling look efficient.
Once upon a time (a.k.a. the 1990s to mid-2010s), airlines could expect a shiny new jet within 2 to 3 years of ordering. Widebodies took a bit longer, and regional jets took a bit shorter. But those days are long gone. Lead times have been creeping up since the late 2010s, and as of 2024, they’ve smashed records at 5.3 years. That means airlines are only just receiving aircraft they ordered in or before 2019, back when COVID was just a mystery pneumonia, and Boeing still had a functioning PR team.
Now, let’s talk backlogs because they’re getting absurd. By the end of 2024, the global aircraft order book had ballooned to 17,000 jets, equivalent to half the world’s current fleet. Historically, the backlog has hovered around one-third of the fleet, so we’re in uncharted territory here.
Clearing that massive backlog would take 13.5 years at today’s production pace. Yep, order a jet today, and you might not get it until 2040, a time when supersonic air travel might (finally) be a thing again, and who knows, British Airways might have figured out how to serve a proper cup of tea onboard.
For airlines, this is a nightmare. Fleet planning now requires a crystal ball, a lucky rabbit’s foot, and the patience of a saint. Meanwhile, passengers will continue squeezing into older aircraft for years to come.
Fasten your seatbelts; the turbulence in aircraft availability isn’t ending anytime soon.
